Welcome to The Exponential Age

The Exponential Age !

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. They can’t imagine the arriving of The Exponential Age . Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they gotThe Exponential Age bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year  and most people don’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence.

Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in The exponential age artificial intelligencethe world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans. Warnings of the Exponential Age !

Autonomous cars.

In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year. Hurrah for The Exponential Age!

How will teenagers go parking without cars ?

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach andThe exponential age driverless car build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Won’t need as many garages if fewer  people have cars, so living in the city may become more attractive as people like being around other people.  That won’t change.

Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

What will we do to make eyes and buttons for our snowman ?

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.


The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with you phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing

The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that The exponential age 3d printeliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities.

If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

The world’s oldest profession will still be around, unless replacement robots are created.


70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time. Some risks of The Exponential Age.


There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working allThe Exponential Age. Robots farming days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects). Can, The Exponential Age, change it?

There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.


Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100. A great benefit that will come with The Exponential Age .

The world has always had an overpopulation problem within recent history, and all this will make it worse.  Technology may grow by leaps and bounds, but human enculturation will not.  We will have the same political greed for power and control, others kicking back, and wars will continue.  The new technology will be evident in the tools of war, and the death rate could be staggering.  Continued overpopulation will make cemeteries unpopular and there will be a push to replace them with something that does not take up space.  Or continuing rent will need be paid to stay there.


The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous The Exponential Age Bubapotential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

This assumes kids want to learn rather than play games on their phones and just socialize.

“The Exponential Age “

By Udo Gollub at Messe Berlin, Germany



Custom Search







History of the Commercial Software

Commercial Software History.

Until we get the popularity of personal computers, existing equipment in large companies used software developed for specific applications these users had. At that time the term Commercial Software was unknown.

Since it began marketing the Personal Computer, it began to generate a movement of software developers, even if your home was supplying their own needs for use in specific applications of many professionals such as graphic designers, engineers, planners, Accountants , etc. their programs working primarily in BASIC. Do not take long time to create a market offering that was revolutionizing given the advantages in increasing the productivity of these professionals and many Companies providing these Professional Services.

The end of the Decade of the 70s and the beginning of the 80s saw birth many of now Software and Hardware Giants.

One after another appeared specialized companies that developedcommercial software for old computers equipment such as Apple Computer Inc., Atari, Commodore, Radio Shack, Sinclair, Dell, IBM and many others who disappeared in the midst of fierce competition.

To fill the demand for Software that market-driven, emerged the Software companies that, with Microsoft at the forefront, have changed to the world and to the concepts of productivity, entertainment, art, photography, editing, graphics, storage and management of information, etc..Old Commercial Software

Thus were born VisiCorp, Lotus 123, Broderbund, Software Publishing Corp., Micropro, Ashton Tate, Autodesk, and many more.

Custom Search







Chronology of the computer equipment development.


1642: Pascal designed the first calculating machine (addition and subtraction) based on gears.

1694: The mathematician Leibniz, working on the original design of Pascal, achieves a machine that in addition to adding and subtracting, also multiplied, divided and even extracted square roots.

1822: Babbage, an English mathematician, established the principles of operation of an electronic computer. He worked in a project of machine called “differential machine”, which could solve polynomials up to 8 terms.

1833: A new work of Babbage gives like result the design of a machine that it can be regarded as a prototype of the current computers. He called it “analytical machine” and introduced the concept of feedback of information.

1889: Hollerith patented the first electric tabulator machine, which is considered as the mother of the modern machines for data processing. This machine was used in 1890, for the Census of population of the United States of North America.

1944: Von Neuman proposes the idea of “internal program” and develop a theoretical basis for the construction of an electronic computer.

1945: As a result of the second world war, and because the implied military needs, builds the first electronic computer which was called ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator And Calculator). Its first practical applications were, be used in the construction of tables for the calculation of the trajectory of projectiles.

1952: The construction, on a trial basis, of the computers MANIAC-I and MANIAC-II, set this date as the birth of modern digital computers and the end of the “prehistory of computing”.

For to complete this Chronology, we need to say that, after this last event, the term “Computer” became in a word frequently used in Universities, Investigation Labs, Electronic Companies, etc. And in 1970 with the launch to the market of the Intel 4040 Processor, many companies start with the studies for making Computers Commercially.

There were many Brands fighting for take advantage on the microprocessors market, and with this competence did lower the prices of this element. Since hundreds of dollars, what did almost impossible produce a low cost computer, to the $20’s that was the cost, for example, of the 6502 processor that have had a very important rol in this history.

6502 processor

But the most important historical jump was made in 1976, when two young people undertook the adventure called Apple Computer Inc.

In only one year after their first “commercial attempt” with the Apple I, they launched to the market, in April of 1977, the Apple II.

That Computer was considered the first Popular Personal Computer of the History.

That event gave rise to the birth of many brands of Computers: Commodore 64, TRS 80, Sinclair and many others. Immediately after that, they started appearing many Software companies offering their products for satisfy the incipient market.

Men for the History

Thereafter, the speed that has had the development of this marvel of the human invention has been so fast, that we could hardly describe it, even using several volumes of information. A lot of men focused their lives on Projects that legated us the technology usability.


One of the best demonstrations of technological advancement in this regard, is to see as today everyone can have access to computers that exceed, by far, to those achieved by these precursors. And, as if out, carry them in a pocket or wrist as if it were a conventional watch.

Custom Search